Today is Day 2 of Week 6 of the epidemic. We need to maintain rigorous self-quarantines and personal protection when outside, but there is hope and some data that the rate of new cases in Massachusetts is slowing. What we need most to get ourselves out of quarantine is an effective drug treatment, so that an infection does not carry high risk of hospitalization and ICU care or death. PPEs are still problematic and testing is not yet up to the need. The real bulge of cases here certainly seems likely to extend through May. Happy birthday, Happy birthday is still the key song.
The next six weeks will be risky for all of us as the Covid-19 epidemic continues to extend its reach. Nevertheless, I am convinced we can all stay safe with a high degree of probability during this time, whether by keeping in our circles of safety, or by careful use of personal protective gear, providing we are rigorous in our self-protection. I present and explain a graphical model of how and why the number of active cases will likely increase and by how much over April and May.
Covid-19 cases in Massachusetts are expanding exponentially, which will continue through this month. Later in April we pass a peak, or just reach a high plateau. Which is not known. Hospitals, physicians and nurses are struggling still without fully adequate equipment. We have no proven drug treatments nor vaccine. Almost all of our members are safe in their circles of safety, which work. Stay in yours. Do not see others in person regardless of the holidays upcoming.
Today marked beginning of the third week of our collective quarantines. Our practice has had just several possible or likely cases of Covid-19. We will be in “lockdown” certainly through April and most likely through May. We are not providing any off label treatments at this time. Much more testing of active and past disease is needed to enable us to eventually come out of quarantine safely, as well as face masks for all. These of course are not available as yet. But a good card game to try is.
Day 4 of Week 2: We are all in self-quarantine in our circles of safety, or should be, and approaching the very small tail end of likely infection from prior exposure. Covid-19 infections are most likely to continue increasing substantially in our communities at least through the end of April. Our office is staffed by our nurses for communications, but we are arranging all visits and contacts remotely. That has worked well so far. We request email contacts to alleviate the phone burden. PPE’s are still needed to be redirected to hospitals in short supply.
Covid-19 continues to show more cases, more hospitalized, and more rapid spread. We are increasing testing but it remains inadequate, while personal protective equipment (masks and such) is running low for medical personnel. A small bright spot is the possible utility of an old drug in preventing secondary spread. We need to rigorously continue our self protection. April and May are unlikely to be better.
Schools closed, restaurants and theaters off limits. Governor Baker weighs in. Community spread is around. Older people and those with chronic diseases or immunosuppression are at higher risk of severe infections. We describe social distancing in more detail. Establish your circle of relative safety and stick to it. Wash your hands.
We are adjusting our office procedures for dealing with patients with respiratory illness to allow for presence and risks of Covid-19 infections. We believe normal office care is safe and can continue. Quest labs told us yesterday that they in fact will be immediately testing for Covid-19. Great news. We will make regular use of those tests.
Quest labs reneged this morning on its announcement of immediate availability of viral testing for Covid-19 infections. We are seriously disappointed. We explain the role and importance of such testing for your protection during a period of community spread that is now evolving.
The Covid-19 infection continues to spread and challenge our ability to contain it. Here are multiple updates on where we are and the challenges we likely will face, together with good news on availability of viral testing for our OHC office.